In The Observer: “Suppose the British government knew that a key shareholder in Centrica, our last great British energy company and owner of British Gas, was to sell its stake to Gazprom, so making Russian state ownership inevitable. I hope that, in this scenario, the government would expand the provision of the Enterprise Act that allows Britain to block takeovers that are against the national interest to include gas and nuclear power. (The act is currently confined to defence, financial services and the media.)” Repsol was intending to sell YPF to the Chinese. president Fernandez’s's populist action is part of a worldwide pushback against rampant modern capitalism.
Solarcentury
The company I founded in 1998 to design and supply solar energy solutions for the built environment. Solarcentury
Solar Aid
The charity I founded in 2006, with a 5% contribution of Solarcentury profits, to help deliver solar lighting to Africa. Solar Aid
The purpose of this chronological log
January 1, 2006 Change for Good
| “We cannot run a prosperous economy primarily on cleantech in the years to come, and we won’t need to. There is plenty of oil to keep feeding global economic growth. There won’t be a global energy crisis. Climate change is a natural thing and poses little economic threat. The financial crisis of 2007-8 is solved. Investors are behaving in logical ways designed to build prosperity.”
The purpose of this log is quickly to arm any busy person interested in persuading fellow citizens holding these views that they are wrong on every count. The simple march of history, suitably tagged day by day, provides many of the necessary arguments. But not everyone has the few hours I have to follow the emerging dramas daily. Hence my effort to share the precis of a selection of my reading. For those with the stamina for my own interpretations of the log, links to my commentaries in print and other media are in the right hand column. I sincerely hope all this is useful. It wasn’t my idea, and I thank my web-savvy colleagues at Solarcentury for suggesting it, and setting up the site. |
European leaders and financial markets braced for Greek exit from the Euro.
May 15, 2012 Finance
Guardian: “Financial markets are hastily making preparations for a Greek exit from the euro after a day of political and economic turmoil ended with Europe‘s policy elite admitting for the first time that it may prove impossible to keep the single currency intact.”
Caudrilla says UK shale gas production may begin in 2014.
May 10, 2012 Gas
For that, they would need a full field development licence in Q1 2013.
Solar was the most installed energy source in Europe in 2011.
May 10, 2012 Clean Energy, Gas
A new EPIA study shows solar PV at 21.9 GW exceeded wind and gas combined (9.5GW).
Citi analyst says nuclear newbuild will need taxpayer rescue.
May 8, 2012 Nuclear
Reuters: “A report from the Times newspaper on Monday said French nuclear developer EDF had raised the cost of building a nuclear power plant to 7 billion pounds from 4.5 billion pounds last year. “If the latest cost figures are true, new nuclear power plants in the UK are not commercially viable,” Citi analyst Peter Atherton told Reuters. Based on the new figures, nuclear would be the most expensive form of electricity generation, exceeding even offshore wind, he said. “The only way they could be built is if the construction risk was transferred to the taxpayer,” Atherton said, equating to a multi-billion pound government insurance policy”.”
Czechs eye a two year moratorium on shale gas exploration.
May 7, 2012 Gas
Reuters: They want to put legislation in place first.
FT writer likens shale gas boom to sub-prime mortgages.
May 6, 2012 Gas
John Dizard: “Think about it. Even before the most recent gas price crash, the shale gas producers were spending two, three, four, and even five times their operating cash flow to fund their land, drilling, and completion programmes. The widely accepted claims of huge volumes of cheaply produced energy did not square with this deficit financing. …Too much money was borrowed, on complex and demanding terms. Wall Street should have provided reality checks to the shale gas people; instead, they just provided cashier’s cheques with lots of zeroes at the end. / If this were another real estate bubble, then construction could just slow or stop for a few years while the courts sorted out who should get what from the wreckage. Unfortunately, given the increasing dependency of the US on gas-fired power, it will not be possible to stop. Given the steep decline rates of shale gas wells, compared to conventional wells, drilling will have to continue. Prices will have to adjust upwards, a lot, to cover not only past debts but realistic costs of production.”
The greenest-ever government after the Clean Energy Ministerial: a delusion.
April 26, 2012 Clean Energy, Commentaries
It is “incredibly disappointing”, Jeremy Leggett founder and chairman of Solarcentury told Channel 4 News. “Mr Cameron was elected in major part because he detoxified the Conservative brand on the promise of being the greenest government ever. He is a fine mile short of that. ….All our confidence is shot to pieces. ….It’s the same with investors, and it’s part of a bigger pattern. Meanwhile, these are global industries, and other countries are not making the same mistakes. They’re deluding themselves. You talk to people from other countries – they think it’s a joke. We’re making an exhibition of ourselves.”
“Ghost at the banquet” attends Clean Energy Ministerial.
April 24, 2012 Clean Energy, Commentaries
Business Green: Jeremy Leggett, Founder and Chairman of Solarcentury, who will be attending the event as one of three solar industry representatives, said: “Solarcentury is attending this gathering to make three key points. First, the days when policy makers could dismiss PV as ‘nice to do’ but ‘too expensive’ are over. PV is an essential ally in the global struggle to deliver energy security and a cost-effective low and then zero carbon future. Second, Governments must stop pandering to the fossil fuel and nuclear lobby, a stance which is driving out the very investment which is needed to drive forward PV and other renewable energy technologies. And third, Governments need to resist the temptation to keep undermining successful feed-in tariff policies. This industry will continue to cut costs, invest in new products and jobs, but it needs predictable public policy not knee-jerk panic of the type for example that has undermined the UK scheme.”
Nine out ten British want more renewable energy.
April 23, 2012 Clean Energy
Guardian: “Almost nine in 10 people want to see the government ramp up the UK’s use of clean domestic energy and reduce the country’s reliance on imported gas, a new YouGov poll reveals. Just under two-thirds of the 2,884 people questioned on behalf of campaign group Friends of the Earth listed wind, wave, solar or tidal as power sources they wanted to see playing a greater role in the UK’s electricity mix over the next decade, while just 2% backed an increase in gas capacity. …Currently, only 9.5% of UK electricity comes from renewable energy sources.”
PWC urges stock exchanges to tighten ESG demands on companies.
April 22, 2012 Change for Good, Finance
“It is part of their job and they do not do enough,” says Jon Williams, a partner in the Sustainability and Climate Change practice at PwC. Listing criteria would be a good starting place.
Argentina’s nationalisation of oil is understandable: Will Hutton.
April 22, 2012 Oil
The only greenhouse gas humans stopped emitting we did so accidentally.
April 22, 2012 Climate
SF5CF5, which has a 900 year lifetime, became redundant because other fluorocarbons became available.
Missing renewables target means £60bn in extra imported gas by 2020, says REA.
April 21, 2012 Clean Energy, Gas
Guardian: “Only 3% of the UK’s energy currently comes from renewable sources, such as sun and wind, compared with a European average of 12%. …Imported gas is likely to represent an increasing proportion of the UK’s energy bills, and by 2020 could cost an extra £60bn more than if Britain met the renewable target, according to the study by the Renewable Energy Association (REA). Failing to hit the targets is also damaging the prospects for green jobs – about 110,000 people are employed in the renewable industry today, but a workforce of about 400,000 is estimated to be needed to meet the 2020 goal. At that level, says today’s report, the industry could be worth £50bn a year to the economy.”
Centrica threatens nuclear pullout unless it gets guaranteed prices.
April 20, 2012 Nuclear
FT: “Tim Yeo, chairman of the influential energy select committee, said Centrica’s withdrawal would be a “hammer blow to the future of nuclear,” given that it is one of the few companies with a big enough balance sheet to sustain an investment with little short-term reward.”
Ministers planning hidden subsidies for UK nuclear.
April 20, 2012 Nuclear
Guardian: “Ministers are planning to subsidise nuclear power through electricity bills – despite their promises not to, a secret document seen by the Guardian reveals. The leaked document clearly lays out plans to use “contracts for difference” for nuclear energy, which would allow nuclear operators to reap higher prices for their energy than fossil fuel power stations.” ….The Guardian has also seen a presentation made by Scottish & Southern Energy to MPs last month, saying the plans contain “hidden subsidies”, will be open to challenge on legal grounds, and could “mess up” funding for renewables. …Green campaigners are threatening to bring a legal challenge when the plans are made public later in the year. ….In the coalition agreement subsidies to nuclear are explicitly ruled out.”
New poll finds 66% of UK public in favour of wind power.
April 19, 2012 Clean Energy
An IPSOS Mori poll shows just 11% are against.
New UK organisation to oppose all forms of wind power.
April 19, 2012 Clean Energy
National Opposition to Wind (NoW) has been set up by a LibDem peer.
McKinsey sees solar PV cost competitiveness by 2020.
April 18, 2012 Clean Energy
BusinessGreen: ‘A major new report from consultancy giant McKinsey ….predicts solar power will be cost competitive with fossil fuels in hot countries within two to three years, while further cost reductions will be delivered without any major technological breakthroughs. Entitled Solar power: Darkest before the dawn, the report predicts that despite subsidy cuts and a number of high-profile bankruptcies, solar capacity globally will continue to soar as costs fall by an average of 10 per cent a year through to 2020. “Our analysis suggests that by the end of the decade, costs could decline to $1 per watt peak (Wp) for a fully installed residential system,” the report states. “But even if costs only fall to $2 per Wp, the industry is still likely to install an additional 400GW to 600GW of PV capacity between now and 2020″. It adds that such a rapid reduction in the costs of solar energy could have a revolutionary effect on the global energy industry. “Rapid growth of distributed generation could disrupt the regulated utility industry in countries that belong to the Organisation for Economic Co-operation and Development (OECD),” the report argues. ….Aanesen predicted that those solar firms that survive the next few years will find themselves operating in an industry that is able to compete without subsidy with established energy sources such as coal and nuclear.”
Take-up of UK solar PV has more than halved since April 1st.
April 18, 2012 Clean Energy, Commentaries
Business Green: “Weekly government figures revealed that solar firms installed an average of 2MW each week since the start of April, marking a sharp decline from the 4.8MW average capacity installed in the same weeks last year. This month’s figures are the lowest since January 2011, aside from the week leading up to 1 January 2012, when just 0.4MW of capacity installed. They also reveal that only one business-scale installation was completed last week, the lowest level since January 2011. …Jeremy Leggett, founder and chairman of Solar Century, said many installers were reporting that trade had declined by 90% since last year. “The heat’s totally gone out of the market,” he said. “It’s not just about the feed-in tariff but the government has succeeded in confusing people and making them lose interest in solar power. They’ve done a great job in stuffing the embryonic industry.” …Leggett also urged the government to draw up a roadmap to help the industry achieve DECC’s stated goal of delivering 22GW of solar capacity by 2020. “We could help them draw up a roadmap. Surely they must at least now be minded to have a rethink of their policies,” he added. “The nuclear ship is going down in the UK and they must have realised that the next question is about where the clean energy is going to come from. Or are they going to listen to the new carbon industries who think we can “frack” our way to energy independence?”"
DECC panel says UK government should OK fracking with checks.
April 17, 2012 Gas
BBC: “The panel recommends four precautions regarding Cuadrilla’s Preese Hall operation and other projects in the Bowland Shale: all injections of fracking fluid must include a preliminary injection, followed by monitoring; the growth of fractures in the shale should be monitored; operations should monitor seismic events in real time; operators should observe a “traffic light” regime, with quakes of magnitude 0.5 or above triggering a “red light” and an immediate halt, followed by remedial action.”
“BrightSource’s IPO failure ends golden age of VC solar investment”.
April 17, 2012 Clean Energy, Finance
PV Tech: “BrightSource has also raised more than $530 million in financing from DBL Investors, Chevron, Alstom and leading Silicon Valley venture firm, VantagePoint Capital. VantagePoint is currently in fundraising mode and lists a number of solar plays in its cleantech portfolio in addition to BrightSource: MiaSolé, SolarCentury and 1366. MiaSolé could be more likely to be acquired than go public; SolarCentury could struggle to reach vast levels of installed capacity in the UK and 1366′s direct wafer technology has yet to reach commercial production. Out of all VantagePoint’s rising solar stars, BrightSource appeared the most likely to replicate the “home run” the VC firm had with the Tesla exit in 2010. Since then, the cleantech IPO drought has grown more extreme, except for biofuels companies such as Solazyme, Amyris and Gevo. Last month, Enphase Energy finally broke the drought. The Californian microinverter company’s share price only reached half of its target, which still returned a modest $37.7m for at least one of its investors, Kleiner Perkins Caufield & Byers. Hopes were high for BrightSource and a successful IPO would have been a significant boost for the broader solar industry.”