Solarcentury
The company I founded in 1998 to design and supply solar energy solutions for the built environment. Solarcentury
Solar Aid
The charity I founded in 2006, with a 5% contribution of Solarcentury profits, to help deliver solar lighting to Africa. Solar Aid
The purpose of this chronological log
| “We cannot run a prosperous economy primarily on cleantech in the years to come, and we won’t need to. There is plenty of oil to keep feeding global economic growth. There won’t be a global energy crisis. Climate change is a natural thing and poses little economic threat. The financial crisis of 2007-8 is solved. Investors are behaving in logical ways designed to build prosperity.”
The purpose of this log is quickly to arm any busy person interested in persuading fellow citizens holding these views that they are wrong on every count. The simple march of history, suitably tagged day by day, provides many of the necessary arguments. But not everyone has the few hours I have to follow the emerging dramas daily. Hence my effort to share the precis of a selection of my reading. For those with the stamina for my own interpretations of the log, links to my commentaries in print and other media are in the right hand column. I sincerely hope all this is useful. It wasn’t my idea, and I thank my web-savvy colleagues at Solarcentury for suggesting it, and setting up the site. |
UK government loses appeal on illegality of DECC’s solar feed-in tariff cuts.
Three more judges rule, in the Appeal Court that the government’s proposal to cut tariffs from 12 December was illegal. Business Green: “Jeremy Leggett, chairman of Solarcentury, said the news was a positive outcome for the entire renewable energy industry: “Today we have reminded government that it will be held to account when it acts illegally and tries to push through unlawful policy changes. We would much prefer not to have taken this path but ministers gave us no choice. Our hope now is that we can work together again to restore the thriving jobs-rich solar sector that has been so badly undermined by government actions since October”.”
“The carbon bubble will burst – we must be prepared this time”.
Business Green: “This is really important. No matter where you stand in the green debate, the threat posed by the systemic over valuation of carbon intensive firms and assets is a critical issue that should concern you – really, really concern you.” …. That is the warning currently being sounded by the recently launched Carbon Tracker Initiative, which last week released its second report on the scale of the so-called “carbon bubble” and wrote to Bank of England Governor Mervyn King urging him to take action. The two reports from the group – which is backed by some high profile green thinkers and investors, including the WWF, Solarcentury chairman Jeremy Leggett, former chief scientist Sir David King, and Conservative MP Zac Goldsmith – should be required reading for political leaders, business leaders, and economists everywhere. If there was any sense of proportion, it would be at the top of the agenda at this week’s annual billionaire schmooze-fest at the World Economic Forum in Davos.”
Areva confirms private investigator was hired as ex boss starts legal action..
FT: “A senior director at Areva, France’s state-owned nuclear champion, has confirmed that he did hire a Swiss intelligence firm to examine its disastrous €1.8bn purchase of a uranium miner but denied that it was part of a plot against Anne Lauvergeon, the company’s former chief executive.” Anne Lauvergeon has begun a legal action claiming her phones were tapped.
FT: “Radiant outlook for energy sector” …meaning gas.
The S&P 500 is having its best start since 1987, especially in energy stocks, after a disappointing 2011, wherein when the single worst-performing share was First Solar A short on the shares was the most profitable position in 2011 for some hedge funds, such as Greenlight. “Many future deals will focus on traditional energy. But many others will also involve bets tied to the new technologies around gas generally – and shale in particular – in part because of such uncertainty” (as the Arab Spring aftermath and the Iranian sanctions).
Investors ask BoE to probe risk that fossil-fuel reserves pose “sub-prime” risk.
Fossil fuel reserves listed in the City of London are “sub-prime” assets posing a systemic risk to economic stability. So warns a high-profile coalition of investors, politicians and scientists , writing an open letter to Sir Mervyn King asking him to launch an investigation. Signatories include Aviva Investors, Climate Change Capital, Conservative politician Zac Goldsmith and Solarcentury chairman Jeremy Leggett. Abatement policies could mean billions of pounds of fossil fuel reserves will rapidly lose value and cause a “major problem” for institutional investors and pension funds. Guardian: “CarbonTracker’s latest report reveals that coal reserves held by 16 London-listed companies will release 45bn tonnes of CO2 when burned, equivalent to 86 years of annual UK emissions, which are the tenth highest in the world. Most of the coal is in other countries such as Australia and South Africa.”
US regulator rejects utility’s proposed “network usage charge” ploy to suppress solar PV.
The California Public Utility Commission fears that San Diego Gas & Electricity’s slapped-on charge, one that would wreck solar economics, is illegal.
BP sees non-fossil fuel growing faster than any single fossil fuel.
This is the first time any of their long term energy forecasts have said this.
Ex Areva CEO says she was victim of a plot and that the state spied on her.
She claims the campaign began 2007, when she opposed breaking the group up: that this “bothered a certain number of private interests,” adding “it was necessary to bring me down, and for that all means were fine, including the dirtiest”.
Saudi Arabia targets a $100 oil price.
Up a third from $75, the price it put forward as fair in 2008. The IMF has estimate $80m is needed to balance the domestic budget.
Oil price in euro equivalent is almost at July 2008 peak.
And as the Washington Post reports, economic concern is rising with it. The gathering sanctions on Iran is a big factor. Price now is not much more than $100, but the euro is not what it was. Last year’s average oil price was a record $107, up 14% on the previous record year, 2008.
Eurozone crisis deepens: S&P downgrades 7 nations including France.
François Baroin, France’s finance minister: “It is not good news … but it is not a catastrophe. It is not the ratings agencies that dictate the policies of France.”
Big 6 UK energy companies had 4 million complaints in 2011.
Bill mistakes and inaccurate readings caused the most anger, a Which report finds. It makes the front page of the Daily Mail.
Clean energy investment up 5% to $260bn in 2010, with solar more than half.
So Bloomberg New Energy Finance reports. The US retook top position from China, thanks to stimulus measures. Ethan Zindler, of Bloomberg NEF: “We are on the verge of a turning a corner where in the next five to seven years or so, subsidy will be much less important for clean energy investment.” Solar investment was up 36% to $137bn: more than a half of all clean energy investment. Kevin Parker of Deutsche Bank Asset Management: “We are on our way to the point where solar power costs the same as fossil fuel power, and it’s not that far away. When we get there, there’s going to be a lot of money to be made by the leaders in the solar industry.”
Germany installs 7.5 GW of solar PV in 2011.
The record figure is slightly exceeds the 7.4 GW recorded in 2010, says German network regulatory agency Bundesnetzagentur (BnetzA). Additions in December alone amounted to 3 GW. The pace of installations could trigger a 15 percent cut in tariffs from July 2012: it would take only 225 megawatts (MW) between January and April to trigger that level. Equinet analyst Stefan Freudenreich: “We see proponents of an annual installation cap gaining influence in the discussion, especially in the context of an overall weakening economy, making politicians more sensitive to cost burdens in the manufacturing industry sector.” Solar PV is now just over 3% of Germany’s overall power output, or 18 billion kilowatt hours.
America Petroleum Institute threatens Obama with “political backlash”.
The API launches a political campaign called “Vote 4 Energy”, which will use all modern comms to press both Republican and Democratic politicians to support the industry’s agenda, notably the Keystone XL pipeline.
Richard Branson: “the absolute necessity” of investing in renewables.
Richard Branson, in posting my latest blog on his website: “Struck by this email from my friend Dr Jeremy Leggett over Christmas highlighting the growing divide between those that believe in the absolute necessity of investing in renewable fuels and those who ignore the obvious need – preferring to focus on short term goals and profits. I believe we must keep investing in alternative fuels to help reduce our Global carbon problem. Those fearing that economic growth will be stifled by investment in renewables are wrong.” etc.
Ohio earthquake probably caused by fracking wastewater.
So a seismologist studying a magnitude 4.0 event concludes.
BP sues Halliburton for the costs of the Macondo spill.
Meanwhile, Halliburton stands firm that it was indemnified by BP. The total costs may be as much as $42bn. But the US DoJ is believed to be preparing criminal charges against BP engineers.
UK third-bottom of the European renewable energy league.
European Commission statistics published today as part of the EurObserv’ER project show the share of renewable energy in the UK’s final energy consumption was just 3.3%, slightly ahead of only Malta and Luxembourg. The report also shows the UK has the biggest gap to bridge to achieve the legally binding 2020 target of sourcing 15% of the country’s energy mix from renewables. Sweden tops the league with 46.9% of the national energy mix sourced from renewables. Across Europe renewables are 12.4% of overall gross final energy consumption, compared to 11.5% in 2009 – a 0.9 point year-on-year increase compared to 2009.
JL blog: Energy dramas for 2012.
2011 was a year of growing polarisation for those of us who long for renaissance fuelled by renewables. The Germans announced targets to run their railway system entirely on renewable energy, mostly wind,and solar. Yet BP announced it will quit solar entirely to pile ever further into tar sands, unconventional gas and the rest of the carbon status quo. The IEA pronounced that the cost of energy will rise “viciously” on a global basis without clean energy. Yet the British “Big Six” opted for so much gas that the installation rate of British renewables fell steeply: this despite conventional UK energy prices soaring so steeply that fully 1 in 4 of UK households fell into fuel poverty in 2011, up from 1 in 5 in 2010.
There were so many of these stark contrasts in the theatre of energy last year.
It seems that the closer renewables advocates get to their dream, the harder the defenders of the status quo push back the other way, notwithstanding the increasingly clear economic, environmental and social downsides. They surely are teeing up some dramas for 2012.
Not to mention interesting research material for neuroscientists interested in how dysfunctional human cultures work. Its not as though Big Energy, and their cosy nexus with conventional capital, just do these things and be done with it. They lobby for their short-term perceived interests – hard, and mostly below the radar – entraining many in officialdom and politics to their ruinous causes.
To the extent that solar energy in cloudy Britain might be a tiny-corner microcosm of a much bigger picture of the potential for renewable-powered renaissance, there is a particularly interesting drama unfolding as we enter 2012. In case you missed it, the British High Court ruled on 21st December that the UK government has acted illegally in proposing a retrospective reduction in the solar feed-in tariff. The arguments for and against were summarised that night on the BBC, here (headline and 7 mins 20 secs in for the detail). The government can appeal by January 4th, risking further humiliation in its efforts to cut back a solar market just a tiny fraction the size of Germany’s. Or it can switch tack, resurrect an industry that was creating thousands of jobs – at net economic benefit to the UK economy – in a time of dire need for such, while realigning with some its core strategic themes, not least a Big Society countering austerity-related unemployment with a domestic green industrial revolution. This will be a choice to watch as the dramas in the triple crunch of financial crisis, climate crisis, and energy crisis roll on in 2012.
UK green energy investment sharply down on 2009.
£2.5bn is the latest DECC figure. The developing world is now surging ahead of Britain, which fell out of the top 10 in 2010. 3.3% of UK energy now comes from renewables.