The latest effort to find the big idea that might placate investors is a focus by the trouble-hit company on Iraq. Rumours of a takeover by Shell swirl around, and CEO Dudley does not discount his own break-up of the company, emulating ConocoPhillips and Marathon recently.
Archive for July, 2011
So the headline in the FT reads for an article relaying the responses of analysts and fund managers to the CarbonTracker report. Says one analyst: “I think it’s a bollocks subject. I’m not interested in this kind of subject. I think this is complete hot air.” Says a fund manager: “We apply our own judgment as to what is technically feasible, we don’t look at what is legally feasible. There are no restrictions on companies at the moment in terms of the amount of oil and gas that they can produce.”
Top 15 shareholders are complaining amid “lacklustre” returns, that Carl-Henrik Svanberg has not provided enough strategic direction. Note that there was also a strong protest vote against the reappointment of the senior independent director, Sir Bill Castell, at the last AGM.
Barclays Capital concludes that even if the conflict ends soon, the return of capacity will take years rather than months, because there has been too much damage to infrastructure.
From April to June this year, nearly 34 MW of new solar generating capacity has been added to the UK grid, bringing the UK’s total capacity to nearly 122MW: more than 14,500 new installations, compared with the UK’s total capacity of only 2,700 PV systems in use by the end of March 2010, according to newly released figures from the Department of Energy and Climate Change.
Regions under conservation mandates appear to be meeting reduction targets and even exceeding them. In the Tokyo area, for example, the government is pushing to cut electricity use by 15 percent between 9 a.m. and 8 p.m. on weekdays in order to prevent blackouts. The Japanese are bringing to the conservation drive, according to the NYT, “a characteristic combination of national fervor, endurance, sloganeering, technology and social coercion.”
Jonathon Porritt in the Guardian: “Monbiot is fixed in a contrarian crusade to undermine the solar industry and his controversialist instincts have blinded him”. In a detailed look at the economics of nuclear, the former Chairman of the Sustainable Development Commission sets out the challenges for nuclear CFOs, with evidence including the SDC’s own conclusions.
A quarter of £3.3 bn profit and 3.43 mbd of oil equivalent production disappoints analysts. Some suggest the company should spin off refining/marketing, like Conoco-Phillips. One says “they are in limboland.”
Oilprice.com: “Someone with a modestly open checkbook towards Tashkent, as opposed to the costs of replicating the research, could acquire bargain basement unique insights into nearly fifty years of solar energy research from the first nation to launch a man into space.” Well worth a punt, this oil-focussed website opines.
Traders are betting that growth in emerging markets will contervail EU debt and the deadlocked politicians who threaten the US economy.
The Commons energy select committee wants to see voluntary reparations to consumers who have been sold needlessly high tariffs on the doorstep as a result of what they call “Del Boy” tactics. Ofgem’s investigations of four of the Big 6 are ongoing.
Investors are spooked by the delays and cost over-runs at Flammanville. One analyst says Centrica should not touch their intended UK joint venture building nuclear plants with EDF “with a barge pole”.
Shares of small US mid-continent oil refiners have risen. They are able to refine the lower cost WTI oil.
So Dr Jim Watson of SPRU calculates for the Guardian. The assumptions, beyond the new cost estimate: a lifetime (the number of years to pay off the capital) of 20 years, a high load factor (the percentage of the time the station will operate) of 85%, a discount rate of 12% (not the 10% the UK’s Committee on Climate Change uses) and a construction period of five years. That ends up with a rough generation cost of 11p per kWh. The CCC range in their Renewable Energy Review was 5p to 10p/kWh. If you assume the same conditions as in the first case above, but put in an earlier construction cost estimate of €4bn, you get a cost of electricity of between 5.5p and 6p/kWh instead. [Hence, the price has risen 33-45%]
Nine out ten consumers who switched accounts as a result of doorstep sales say they would never do so again. Half said they were pressured.
The number of Indonesian billionaires doubled last year to more than 20 – almost all of them commodities tycoons, the FT reports. Extractive industries – mainly coal, oil and gas – are now about a third of Indonesia’s economy. Tax income from coal mining will reach $7bn in 2011.