Archive for December, 2011

Why is a Keynesian solution so difficult to sell when it is clear that austerity is worsening the economic downturn?

December 6, 2011 Finance

Jonathan Freedland in the Guardian: The seemingly counter-intuitive argument must be better framed. “A quick look at the record of British debt going back to 1830 shows that, by historical standards, our current indebtedness is no more than a modest uptick compared with, say, the late 1940s, when debt was five times as great as it is now – and yet it was precisely then, when the country really was drowning in red ink, that Keynes was advocating a fiscal stimulus.”

Durban Summit outcome looks gloomy with 3 days to go.

December 6, 2011 Climate

With three days to go, it is unclear that any o the three big issues can be resolved: whether the “green climate fund” is permitted to go ahead; the future of the Kyoto treaty, which is in grave doubt; and whether there can be a new global legally binding treaty on the climate in future, or a weaker compromise. Guardian: “The IEA warns that the number of fossil fuel power stations and other energy hungry infrastructure that we build in the next three to five years may determine the whole future of the planet – because building such infrastructure, which will be around for decades to come, will “lock in” a world of high emissions.”

Standard & Poors flags downgrade of multiple EU countries.

December 6, 2011 Finance

Ann Pettifor in the Guardian: “So European politicians want to shoot the messengers. Sure, ratings agencies haven’t always been reliable, decent or honest. And sure, like eurozone politicians, Standard & Poor’s is just following events, not shaping them.”

Big 6 demands for up-front payments are a barrier to new UK manufacturing.

December 6, 2011 Gas

Guardian: “The government’s hopes of rebuilding the economy with a “march of the makers” risks being derailed by energy companies that are demanding huge upfront payments to power new factories. Soaring energy prices, which are already hitting homeowners, are also forcing manufacturers to shut down plants or relocate their factories to other countries. The British Ceramic Confederation said some members have been asked to pay deposits of up to £200,000 – the equivalent of four months’ worth of power – before energy firms are willing to take them on as customers.”

Big 6 bosses earn millions as their customers bills soar.

December 6, 2011 Gas

Guardian: “The Big Six energy companies have walked into a political storm over executive pay amid revelations that their bosses are earning up to £4m a year as an increasing number of their customers are being pushed into fuel poverty.”

CO2 emissions have increased by a half in 20 years.

December 5, 2011 Climate
Tyndall Centre research shows that last year, emissions from burning fossil fuels rose by 5.9%, bringing the total rise since 1990, the baseline year for calculating emissions under the Kyoto protocol, to 49%, an average rate of increase of about 3.1% a year.The study, published in the peer-reviewed journal Nature Climate Change, found that global carbon emissions were likely to carry on increasing at a rate of about 3% per year.

EDF and other Big Energy firms have loaned 50 employees to government.

December 5, 2011 Clean Energy, Coal, Gas, Oil

The Guardian reveals that at least 50 employees of companies including the Big 6 have been placed within government to work on energy issues in the past four years: free of charge and working within the departments for secondments of up to two years. “There have also been 195 meetings between ministers from the Department of Energy and Climate Change (Decc) and the energy industry between the 2010 general election and March 2011, according to a Guardian analysis of declared meetings with Decc.” Caroline Lucas: “Companies such as the big six energy firms do not lend their staff to government for nothing – they expect a certain degree of influence, insider knowledge and preferential treatment in return. … None of the staff on secondment in Decc work for renewable energy companies. … Secondments also work in reverse, with civil servants going to work in the energy industry, such as a two-year secondment to Shell and another to Horizon Nuclear Power, a joint venture of E.ON and RWE npower that aims to build nuclear power stations in the UK.”

Brazilian government orders Chevron to shut an offshore well.

December 5, 2011 Oil

This at one of Chevron’s 11 production wells in an important offshore field where the company suffered an oil leak last month. A safety audit last week of the Frade offshore oil platform found that the company did not report the presence of hydrogen sulphide in crude at the facility.

China says it may accept a legally-binding outcome at Durban climate summit.

December 5, 2011 Climate

This as ministers fly in for the second of the two weeks. There are conditions, but Chris Huhne says this creates space for a positive outcome to the summit, where the footdraggers – led as ever by the US – hope only for voluntary measures, and a deferred outcome until 2020.

BP claims Halliburton destroyed Deepwater Horizon evidence.

December 5, 2011 Oil

They claim intentional destruction of test results and computer analysis least it be used in evidence against them. This in a court filing ahead of February’s trial to sort out claim and counter claim.

Countercurrents: the triple crunch we face and the barriers to renaissance.

December 5, 2011 Clean Energy, Commentaries, Finance, Oil

In an extended interview in India, I talk about the similarities between the credit crunch and the peak oil issue, and the power of renewables and why clean-energy industries are being held back.

DECC passed nuclear intelligence documents to industry, documents show.

December 5, 2011 Nuclear

Badly-redacted documents obtained under the Freedom of Information Act show that DECC passed sensitive documents on government policy to the Nuclear Industries Association. They also passed Greenpeace’s court documents (from the case against HMG) to the lobby group. in which EDF features prominently among 260 member companies.

Climate change investing is “a sunset industry”: FT Lex.

December 4, 2011 Clean Energy, Climate

So says the FT’s Lex column: “the appeal, and likely returns, of climate change investing are fading fast.”

UK economic outlook so bleak that business-as-usual capitalism cannot expect to muddle through now.

December 4, 2011 Finance

Will Hutton in the Observer: “The last time Britain endured such an extended period of depression and falling living standards – the 1870s and 1880s – saw the mushrooming of the co-operative movement and the emergence of the Labour party as the more moderate expressions of anger that wanted to challenge the very basis of capitalism. Be sure that British civil society will not accept its grim fate as if nothing is happening. There will be organised and angry responses – and rightly. We are about to experience economic, social and political tectonic plates on the move.”

UK renewables projects tumble as Big 6 dash for gas.

December 4, 2011 Clean Energy, Gas

Guardian: “The construction of new renewable energy generation capacity has fallen dramatically, as the big six energy suppliers pursue a “dash for gas” policy that could put the UK’s climate change targets out of reach and leave households with higher bills.” Wind projects are down by half on last year. Less than a GW of wind has been approved and 30 GW of gas is at planning stage.

UK new nuclear plans slip yet again: 2019 now, maybe.

December 2, 2011 Nuclear

As the Telegraph puts it: “The first of the new plants will not be built until 2019 because of extra safety checks following Japan’s atomic disaster. Ministers originally hoped to get the first nuclear power station built by 2017, before revising this to 2018. Now there has been a further slippage, after an updated timetable showed the first station in Somerset is not expected until nearer the end of the decade.”

Big Energy firms accused of profiteering, again.

December 2, 2011 Gas, Nuclear

New analysis for the Guardian by Manchester University shows a progressive widening between wholesale and retail prices.

Review article on solar FiTs: success in Germany versus threat from nuclear lobby in Japan.

December 1, 2011 Clean Energy, Nuclear

Japanfocus.org: “Last year, according to figures from Bloomberg New Energy Finance (link), investment in new generation capacity from renewable energy sources (excluding hydro) totaled USD 187 billion, outpacing the USD 157 billion new investment in natural gas, oil, and coal-fired generating capacity.
….The FIT cost the Germans EURO 3.2 billion in 2008, but the German Federal Ministry for the Environment calculates that the FIT saved Germany EURO 7.8 billion in fossil and nuclear fuels and the public health and other external costs from carbon emissions, air and water pollution, and the like by EURO 9.2 billion. …. it has worked far above expectations in Germany for the past 10 years. Germany set a 2010 target of 12.5 percent share of renewable energy in electric generation in 2000. They surpassed that goal in late 2007 with 15.1 percent share. …. since the German’s have launched their FIT program, approximately 35 to 40 counties have followed suit and implemented their own.
…. Japan introduced a FIT in November of 2009… This FIT is encouraging a rapidly expanding volume of renewables investment inside Japan from co-ops and farmers, households and local communities through to such heavyweights as Softbank, NTT, and Marubeni as well as overseas giants including Germany’s Siemens and China’s number 2 PV producer JA Solar. …. The real risk in Japan is that prices will be set too low so that little deployment is encouraged. This would blunt the incentives of the world’s third-largest economy to lead the energy transition, at the same time driving down its own power costs and externalities as well as those for billions elsewhere, especially in Asia and Africa. This risk is due to the nuclear village having managed to get its people named to the committee that is to set prices. As Japan’s Institute for Sustainable Energy Policies (ISEP) warns in a November 24 press release, these individuals include Shindo Kosei, Executive VP of Nippon Steel and head of Keidanren’s Global Environment Division. ….This ongoing fight over structuring the FIT is part of the larger fight between renewables and nuclear as the pillar of Japan’s power economy, a fight the November 18 New York Times understands to be a “contest over the future of Japan itself”.”

Governor of Bank of England warns of spiral into crisis.

December 1, 2011 Finance

Mervyn King: “The crisis in the euro area is one of solvency not liquidity. And the interconnectedness of major banks means the banking systems and economies around the world are all affected. Only the governments directly involved can find a way out of this crisis.” The Financial Policy Committee urges banks to continue building up their capital stock and urges them to limit bonuses and dividend payouts rather than cutting back on lending to businesses and households.

More than a quarter of UK households are in fuel poverty after Big 6 energy price rises.

December 1, 2011 Gas, Nuclear
With households spending 10% or more of income on home heat and electricity up from nearly one in five households last year to one in four now (4.1 million), the government looks set to miss its statutory obligation to eliminate fuel poverty by 2016. It now looks certain to fail to meet its legal duty. And these estimates were calculated before the huge prices rises announced last summer by the Big 6. New calculations, provided by Consumer Focus and seen by the Guardian, based on actual bills, show the figure for England alone is now over 5 million households. In the summer price hikes the biggest supplier, British Gas, put its gas and electricity prices up by 18% and 16%, meaning an average annual dual-fuel bill for its 9m customers has risen from £1,096 to £1,288. Price rises have averaged 21% since last year. Over the past five years, average prices have gone up 88%. Some 2.5m people are already in debt to their energy supplier. “Excess” winter deaths are already running at 27,000 a year.

Europe may launch an oil embrago at Iran in wake of embassy attack.

December 1, 2011 Oil

In the wake of the sacking of the british Embassy in Tehran, and oil embargo is under discussion in Europe. The FT reports that “diplomats said one of the key questions for European countries in the weeks ahead would be whether Saudi Arabia and other Gulf states could be persuaded to boost oil production to mitigate the effects.”

  • My most recent commentaries

    • The greenest-ever government after the Clean Energy Ministerial: a delusion.

      It is “incredibly disappointing”, Jeremy Leggett founder and chairman of Solarcentury told Channel 4 News. “Mr Cameron was elected in major part because he detoxified the Conservative brand on the promise of being the greenest government ever. He is a fine mile short of that. ….All our confidence is shot to pieces. ….It’s the same with investors, and it’s part of a bigger pattern. Meanwhile, these are global industries, and other countries are not making the same mistakes. They’re deluding themselves. You talk to people from other countries – they think it’s a joke. We’re making an exhibition of ourselves.”

    • “Ghost at the banquet” attends Clean Energy Ministerial.

      Business Green: Jeremy Leggett, Founder and Chairman of Solarcentury, who will be attending the event as one of three solar industry representatives, said: “Solarcentury is attending this gathering to make three key points. First, the days when policy makers could dismiss PV as ‘nice to do’ but ‘too expensive’ are over.  PV is an essential ally in the global struggle to deliver energy security and a cost-effective low and then zero carbon future.  Second, Governments must stop pandering to the fossil fuel and nuclear lobby, a stance which is driving out the very investment which is needed to drive forward PV and other renewable energy technologies. And third, Governments need to resist the temptation to keep undermining successful feed-in tariff policies.  This industry will continue to cut costs, invest in new products and jobs, but it needs predictable public policy not knee-jerk panic of the type for example that has undermined the UK scheme.”

    • Take-up of UK solar PV has more than halved since April 1st.

      Business Green: “Weekly government figures revealed that solar firms installed an average of 2MW each week since the start of April, marking a sharp decline from the 4.8MW average capacity installed in the same weeks last year. This month’s figures are the lowest since January 2011, aside from the week leading up to 1 January 2012, when just 0.4MW of capacity installed. They also reveal that only one business-scale installation was completed last week, the lowest level since January 2011. …Jeremy Leggett, founder and chairman of Solar Century, said many installers were reporting that trade had declined by 90% since last year. “The heat’s totally gone out of the market,” he said. “It’s not just about the feed-in tariff but the government has succeeded in confusing people and making them lose interest in solar power. They’ve done a great job in stuffing the embryonic industry.” …Leggett also urged the government to draw up a roadmap to help the industry achieve DECC’s stated goal of delivering 22GW of solar capacity by 2020. “We could help them draw up a roadmap. Surely they must at least now be minded to have a rethink of their policies,” he added. “The nuclear ship is going down in the UK and they must have realised that the next question is about where the clean energy is going to come from. Or are they going to listen to the new carbon industries who think we can “frack” our way to energy independence?””

    • Supreme Court kicks out DECC appeal on feed-in tariffs.

      ClickGreen: “Jeremy Leggett, Chairman, Solarcentury said: “The Supreme Court has today confirmed that the Government simply has no grounds to appeal the decision that its handling of solar Feed-in tariffs was illegal. This final step in the legal process has wasted much needed time and money and now we, the renewables industry, simply want to get on with creating our clean energy future. Renewables can only play the pivotal role necessary to deliver a new green economy if we have a stable market and investor confidence backed by lawful, predictable and carefully considered policy. I hope the Government is now clear that it will be held to account if they try to act illegally and push through unlawful policy changes. We would much prefer not to have taken this path but Ministers gave us no choice. Our hope now is that we can work together again to restore the thriving jobs-rich solar sector that has been so badly undermined by Government actions.” More in the Guardian.

    • “We are trying to grow a business in a minefield”.

      E2B Pulse: ““Disastrous” solar Feed-in-Tariffs, the “cavalier irresponsibility” of bankers, and a government that is “mortgaging the future” – Jeremy Leggett is a man with strong opinions. In an exclusive interview with E2B Pulse’s News Editor James Kershaw, Solarcentury’s Executive Chairman argues there’s a war raging against the UK’s renewable energy industry – one that he’s prepared to fight.”

    • PV’s “glittering future” in a near £250bn global green tech market within next decade.

      ClickGreen: “Jeremy Leggett, chairman of UK-based Solarcentury said: “Any industry (PV) growing volume at 69% and cutting costs 40% whilst netting nearly $100 billion you would suspect might have a glittering future. Big Energy needs to understand that this industry is coming for their market share fast, first in Germany and soon after in other countries, they should embrace solar technology and cease their pushback in defence of a ruinous and increasingly expensive status quo. The UK government is among those who need to understand that their accommodation of Big Energy’s special pleading will cause them to lose out in a job-rich global industry just as it approaches a mass market.”

    • Wrexham installs 30,000 locally made solar panels on 3,000 low-income homes.

      Guardian: “Jeremy Leggett, chair of Solarcentury, said the solar would not be crushed. “The government does not want anything to impinge on the prospect of centralised power from the big six electricity companies. But well before 2020 solar will be cheaper than nuclear or gas. It’s not the end of the industry but of our opportunity in Britain to grow a domestic industry that could compete with those in Germany and elsewhere. It will explode again, but it will not be British.”

    • Why so much coverage for one exploding Scottish wind turbine?

      My latest Sublime column, on Big Energy PR blowback against renewables. “What to do about this? Most of us do what we can to support renewables within our circles of influence, be they vocational or domestic. That might boil down just to switching supplier from EDF and otherBig Six companies to Ecotricity or Good Energy. But someone reading this might actually work in a Big Energy PR department, or in one of its hired-gun agencies. You could always leak us the plan for myth-sowing about renewables.”

    • Comment on HMG’s decision to take their illegal FiT plan to the Supreme Court.

      Jeremy Leggett: “We have been expecting this but we hoped that Ed Davey would see sense and not take the appeal. If we are lucky this is just a cynical exercise to limit the market to 3rd March and they will withdraw in a few weeks. If not, and they really are serious about a Supreme Court appeal, then the implications for the renewables industry are deeply worrying. Two weeks ago, Ministers reassured the industry that they wanted to see 4 million solar homes in the UK by 2020. This appeal completely undermines that claim. They need to stop rewriting the scheme, end the constant stop-start and provide long-term stability and meaningful returns for investors and customers and give certainty to the 30,000+ employees of this successful industry – one of the few that is actively creating jobs in this country. If the appeal is successful it will allow Government to change feed-in tariffs whenever it chooses, even for projects that are already installed and supposedly guaranteed the feed-in tariff. At a stroke, this would undermine investment in all UK renewables, not just PV, and show investors that the UK government simply cannot be trusted. Fortunately their arguments are weak. They are the same ones unanimously rejected by the Court of Appeal so I wouldn’t give them much chance of success. Sadly, this appeal has the whiff of farce about it. First they try to woo private capital into infrastructure; then they mismanage it; now they go to the Supreme Court to argue for sovereign default to cover their tracks. I just hope the new Secretary of State actually understands what his lawyers are doing.”

    • Climate change should mean a 100% renewables by 2030 target.

      Interview at the Oxford Climate Forum, in Oxford university student magazine, Cherwell: “There are people who are worried about peak oil who aren’t worried about climate change. And vice versa. I’m worried about both. With both of them, at a minimum it’s about wrecking the global economy. A lot more in the case of climate change. These are high stakes issues. And both are high risk. In fact, climate change isn’t just high risk. It’s odds on certainty.” More.

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