Art Berman’s latest presentation to clients of investment banks and regional geological societies: “Shale plays are not profitable at the corporate level. At the field level, they are only marginally profitable in sweet spots. U.S. production is not sustainable at present levels and the life-cycle of shale plays is more limited than many imagine. International plays will develop slowly and will encounter obstacles not seen in the U.S. and Canada. U.S. Energy Independence is delusional: production from shale has provided a few more years before supply constraint and much higher prices become reality. Shale plays are not a revolution—they are a retirement party.”
A comparison of two drilling booms: 1975-1978 in the ME, a 1.7 mbd increase, and 2007-2012 in the US, a 2 mbd increase: The average rig count was 185 v 799: four times fewer. 17,000 producing wells v 108,000: six times fewer. Constant cost $16.5bn v $656 bn: 39 times less expensive.
Future Today
