FT: Russian production rises to 10.5mbd, but exports slow on rising domestic demand. Rosneft and Gazprom helped push Russian crude oil production to a post-Soviet era high last year according to preliminary data released by the country’s energy ministry.” (more…)
Archive for the ‘Top Ten Signposts to Energy Crisis’ Category
The Bundeswehr has posted an English version (112 pgs) of its recent analysis of peak oil. The original German document was approved for public release last November. Neither the complete German version nor the partial English translation has attracted interest from mainstream media. Conclusions of this vital study include: It is “difficult to imagine how significant the effects of being gradually deprived of one of our civilisation’s most important energy sources will be. Psychological barriers cause indisputable facts to be blanked out and lead to almost instinctively refusing to look into this difficult subject in detail. Peak oil, however, is unavoidable.” Please read on. (more…)
French oil experts, including ex Total executives, publish an appeal in le Monde, translated in the Energy Bulletin.
So writes Liam Halligan in the Telegraph. “Crude is now expensive not due to political argy-bargy but because of the fundamental truths of demand and supply.” Oil now highest ever in sterling and euro terms.
But the ministry takes no position on timing, in its statement on the chief scientist’s enquiry. Most of the 11 submissions gave a date before 2030, and many before 2020.The UK Industry Taskforce on Peak Oil and Energy Security urges the government to take action, and looks forward to working with DECC on an oil shock response plan.
Domestic consumption is so high – currently 2.5 – 3.4 mbd – and growing so fast that by 2030 Saudi oil “could be depleted”. So says Abdel Salam al-Yamani in his company’s magazine, as reported by Spanish magazine elEconomista.es.
So says Fathi Birol, IEA chief economist, on ABC Catalyst’s 12 minute peak oil film, while appearing doubtful about the IEA’s own assertion that production can be lifted to 96 mbd by 2030, crude having peaked in 2006.
A US diplomat is convinced by ex Saudi oilman Sadad al-Husseini that (potential) reserves have been overstated by nearly 40%, and that the world’s number one producer is “running to stand still” as a result of operational challenges. “Jeremy Leggett, convenor of the UK Industry Taskforce on Peak Oil and Energy Security, said: “We are asleep at the wheel here: choosing to ignore a threat to the global economy that is quite as bad as the credit crunch, quite possibly worse.”
In less than 20 years, most production will be burned domestically, on current trends. 8m barrels a day will be needed just for domestic needs by 2028, roughly equivalent to its current production. (more…)
The U.S. Geological Survey assesses conventional, undiscovered oil in the National Petroleum Reserve in Alaska as a fraction of a previous estimate: 896 million barrels, about 90 percent less than a 2002 estimate of 10.6 billion barrels. The reason: drilling has shown more gas than oil recently.
IEA warns Gulf spill effect has put the oil industry’s ability to find enough new oil “on a knife edge.”August 11, 2010 Oil, Top Ten Signposts to Energy Crisis
The IEA monthly oil market report says that c. 30% of existing global oil, and nearly 50% of new supplies by 2015, need to be sourced from offshore, much of it from deep water, where operating and regulatory standards may be tightened, and permits delayed.
Chris Nelder of Energy & Capital: “The remaining resources have become too marginal and too expensive, and the competition for them has become too intense. Rather than keep slugging it out with bigger and better-funded players in pursuit of growth, Conoco has decided to sell $10 billion worth of its assets over the next two years, all of them in the marginal category, and concentrate on producing its core assets.”
A Joint Operating Environment report from the US Joint Forces Command says: “By 2012, surplus oil production capacity could entirely disappear, and as early as 2015, the shortfall in output could reach nearly 10 million barrels per day.”
“The next five years will see us face another crunch – the oil crunch. This time, we do have the chance to prepare. The challenge is to use that time well. ….Our message to government and businesses is clear: act. Don’t let the oil crunch catch us out in the way that the credit crunch did.”
The Kuwait University / Kuwait Petroleum Company study, published in the journal Energy & Fuels, describes the development of a new version of the original “single cycle” Hubbert model that accounts for individual production trends (i.e. a “multi-cycle” model) to provide a global oil production forecast. The researchers analyse production trends of the 47 oil-producing countries supplying most of the world’s conventional crude oil.