Archive of selected extracts from my Triple Crunch Log
Relying on renewables is a pipedream, former Saudi oil boss says
21 June 2009: Former Saudi Aramco CEO Abdallah Jum’ah has told the Royal Academy of Engineering that renewables can only ever manage a minute proportion of world energy. The world has consumed only a trillion barrels of oil out of an estimated endowment of 15 trillion, he insists. Oil is the future.
My view: We believe this at our peril. Western economies allowed themselves to be duped by the investment banking industry, which massively overstated its assets, and we cannot make the same mistake with the oil industry.
German industrial giants support Desertec supergrid project
17 June 2009: Twenty big companies will pool their resources in a plan to generate solar electricity in Africa in CSP plants, and transport it to Europe. Led by Munich Re, and including RWE, EON, Siemens and Deutsche Bank, their plan is to “put concrete measures on the table” within 2-3 years. The full scheme, costing €400bn (£337bn), could be fuelling Europe within a decade, they say.
My view: Yes, lets use the sun. But lets also make sure we maximise the use of solar on buildings and scrubland in our cloudy north European home countries
UK MPs make Commons solar power motion the most supported in Parliament
10 June 2009: 240 MPs spanning all major parties have now signed Early Day Motion number 689, in support of solar PV in the UK, making it the most popular Commons motion out of over 1,600 tabled to date in this Parliamentary session. The weight of MP support for the motion reflects the views of 1000’s of individuals and 100’s of organisations signed up to the ‘We Support Solar’ campaign. Tabled by Colin Challen MP, Labour Chair of the All-party Commons climate change group, the motion welcomes the launch of the ‘We Support Solar’ campaign and calls on the Government to overturn its negative treatment of solar PV in the 2008 Renewable Energy Strategy consultation.
BP CEO says solar PV won’t ever compete with traditional energy without a breakthrough in technology
14 May 2009: Tony Hayward tells a conference in California that “I think solar is probably the most challenged of all of BP’s alternative energy interests. It is not going to make the transition to be competitive with more conventional power, the gap is too big.” There needs to be a step-change in technology, he says.
My view: This opinion is going to go down in history as a rival in ridicule to the view of a past chief executive who predicted there would one day be a market, after the passage of much time, for a very small number of computers. Even in cloudy Britain I predict grid parity for residential solar PV by 2013.
European PV industry says it can contribute 12% of EU electricity by 2020
1 October 2008: The European PV Industry Association (EPIA), which has a history of very cautious estimates of industry growth versus real achievement, announces its latest conclusion at a trade fair in Valencia. 420 TWh would need to be generated to hit this target (i.e. a total European electricity market of 3,500 TWh is assumed by 2020). In this calculation, PV is at grid parity in 2010 in Spain, and most countries not long thereafter. PV would be addressing 60-90 percent of the market.
