Latest selected extracts from my Triple Crunch log
Page last updated: 27 January
UK opinion poll shows huge public support for feed-in tariffs.
27 January 2010: A survey of more than 2,000 people carried out for the Cooperative Group and others shows that two-thirds of people think that the government’s feed-in tariff plans should be more ambitious, and that 71% of homeowners would consider installing green energy systems if the tariffs give a good return.
My view: The new government scheme could yet deliver hundreds of thousands of jobs in solar photovoltaics and other small-scale renewables, and it could also cut significantly our country’s increasing dependence on imported fossil fuels.
Russia seeks bilateral role in Indian solar expansion.
13 January 2010: Indian Prime Minister Manmohan Singh launches the Jawaharlal Nehru National Solar Mission, aiming for 20 GW of solar energy for India by 2022, alongside Sergei Seredin, Russia’s first deputy director general of economics and finance, who led a delegation from Moscow in the inaugural ceremonies. He says Moscow was interested in playing a role in New Delhi’s strategy to construct solar power stations and manufacturing facilities.
My view: India and China both now seem to be understanding the potential of solar PV, and the Russian move is also significant. Those who still have to fully appreciate what the technology can contribute, such as the UK, should really think hard about this.
US real estate investment trusts are showing increased interest in renting roofs for solar.
23 December 2009: Building owners then have the roof rental income and can sell the electricity to customers or municipalities. A new survey by CoreNet and Jones Lang LaSalle finds 21 per cent of corporate real estate tenants willing to pay higher rents for “sustainable” space if that is offset by lower operating costs. A BMO Capital Markets analyst says a “vast majority” of Reits have either conducted feasibility studies or actually started solar generation projects.
My view: Here is a whiff of the future to cheer one up after the failure of Copenhagen. I think few people appreciate how this is going to drive low carbon markets after solar PV reaches grid parity.
Legendary venture capitalist John Doerr says Silicon Valley will be renamed Solar Valley within ten years.
21 December 2009: But it won’t be kids like the founders of Netscape and Google that make solar work, one source says, it will be experienced old hands. This is because success doesn’t come easy. The article features Miasole, founded in 2003. Former CEO Dave Pearcepredicted that MiaSolé would have $100 million in sales in 2007. But it just shipped its first panels to customers in October..
Masdar solar power plant is working as predicted as enthusiasm for solar grows in the GCC.
9 November 2009: Operating company Enviromena have devised a dry cleaning method that disproves the sceptics who said dust would be problem. Gas is short in most GCC countries, winds are not strong enough, but solar insolation and space are abundant. NCB Capital cites a study by Franz Trieb of the German Aerospace Centre calculating that Arabia’s large desert regions receive annually average solar energy equivalent to 1.5m barrels of oil per sq km.
My view: The 10 MW Masdar PV farm was always going to be a vital demonstration project, and it is heartening indeed to see it showing the way. Solar PV is such an obvious route for Gulf countries to go, both as an alternative to burning of oil in power plants, but also to build strategic domestic industries.
National Grid CEO says embedded generation can provide some 15% of UK electricity by 2020.
5 December 2009: Steve Holliday, who runs the UK’s largest utility company, says rooftop solar panels, wind turbines and other home energy-production devices could generate almost one sixth of Britain’s electricity supplies from homes and offices within just ten years..
Stanford and UC Davis scientists table plan for 100% renewable energy by 2030.
1 November 2009: The 11.5 TW needed might best be attained as follows: 5.8TW of wind (51%), as 3.8 million 5 MW wind turbines and 720,000 0.75MW wave converters; 4.6 TW of solar (40%), as 1.7 bn 3 kW rooftops, 49,000 300 MW CSP plants, 40,000 300 MW solar PV plants; and 1.1 TW (9%) as tidal, geothermal and hydrelectric plants.
My view: The paper offers a marvellous vision, and also considers materials constraints, economics, and of course the downsides of the conventional alternative.
Another UK journalist concludes investors get a better return on solar PV than a savings deposit.
29 August 2009: This time Martin Hickman, in the Independent, assuming the proposed UK feed-in tariff. After 30 years, compound interest would turn the £8,000 in a savings account into £27,568. Assuming the money from solar (the feed-in tariff and electricity savings, etc) is deposited in a bank after an £8,000 installation cost (2kW @ £11,500 minus the £2,500 grant available until April 2010) have been paid off (by year 10), the investor would have £40,654 after 30 years.
My view: Its all about rate of return, not payback. And don’t forget, you still have the asset on the roof - and it still has lots of value - after 30 years.
Amid rancour, China is wresting the solar energy crown from Europe, Daily Telegraph concludes.
23 August 2009: Almost-free state finance backs the Chinese solar giants up, giving them a big advantage over western companies. This has helped drive the world average module price down from $4.20 last year to almost $2 now. Helped further by the government’s linking of an undervalued yuan to a weak dollar, Chinese companies can undercut European companies by around 30%. And Suntech, Trina and Yingli all say they will be manufacturing PV modules below 70 cents a watt by 2012. Solarworld and Conergy have called for EU sanctions over Chinese “dumping” policies. Q-Cells is having to close four production lines, and 500 jobs at Thalheim, and move manufacturing to Asia. China is seizing the wider green crown too. It is spending a sizeable part of its stimulus on green energy. Baoding, the solar and wind hub, is the first carbon-positive city in the world. China is also intent on building 100 GW of wind by 2020. Energy security is more of a driver than climate change. Chinese coal imports rose 130% in the first half of 2009.
Renewables industry investors criticise UK low-carbon plan as short on investment pulling power
19 July 2009: The government envisages £150bn of investment will be needed over the next 20 years: £7.5bn a year. New Energy Finance calls the white paper “old wine in new bottles.” They point out that investment in renewables fell from £6.8bn in 2007 to £4.5bn in 2008. Tom Murley echoes this. JL on the solar feed-in tariff rates proposed: “It might stimulate the market but it’s not going to push it toward the explosive growth rates seen in countries like Germany.” The Vestas Blades factory in Newport, Isle of Wight, is due to close at the end of the month. It has become the symbol of UK renewables sector that is “dangerously becalmed,” the Observer reports.
My view: As the energy minister says, this is a consultation, not a final decision. And then there is the question of what a new government might do after the 2010 British General election.
UK Government publishes consultation on a wide-ranging plan for creating a low-carbon Britain
15 July 2009: This would include the Department of Climate Change and Energy (DECC) seizing control of the grid so as to favour connection of renewables. En route to 34% greenhouse-gas reductions on 1990 levels by 2020 (18% on 2008 levels), 40% of UK electricity would come from renewables and nuclear, more than 30% from renewables (up from 5.5%), 29% from large-scale generation (wind and tidal), and just 2% from all renewable microgeneration. 12% of heat would come from renewables, and 10% of road fuel from biofuels. No energy bill rises would happen before 2015, and by 2020 the add-on to bills would be an average of only 6%, or £75 a year. £3.2bn will be invested by energy companies to improve energy efficiency in homes.
My view: The European Photovoltaic Industry Association (EPIA) estimates that the UK could generate 5% (21 terawatt hours) of all national electricity demand in 2020 with PV (20 GW would required), and 12% (462 terawatt hours) of all EU electricity demand with PV (389 GW would be required). Meanwhile, in the Renewables Strategy it is assumed that solar PV plus five other families of microgeneration would contribute, together, just 2% of the UK’s national electricity demand by 2020. And the feed-in tariffs have been set to reflect this unambitious objective.
UK Government proposes feed-in rates that are too low to attract serious investment in solar
15 July 2009: So I argue in debate with Energy Minister Lord Hunt, the energy minister, re proposed UK feed-in tariff rates on BBC’s The World Tonight. Proposed rates are 36.5p per kWh generation plus a 5p per kWh export tariff for small residential, 26p +5p for installations over 100 kW. Hermann Scheer, father of the German feed-in tariff agrees. Lord Hunt argues not, but emphasises that this is a consultation, and decisions will come later - prior to the April 2010 introduction of the tariff. Also discussed: are nuclear advocates in the Civil Service on a renewables go-slow? I fear so, Lord Hunt says not.
My view: One day I hope it will be possible to congratulate a UK government without reservation on solar policy.
Whitehall hates solar panels because they give others the power to take decisions
10 July 2009: So says the new Daily Telegraph environment writer, Geoffrey Lean, pointing out that politicians like to “think big.” So do civil servants, he believes, who also like to think they know best. But they don’t. They sanctioned the £1bn mixed oxide plant at Sellafield, for example. It was supposed to produce 120 tons of nuclear fuel a year. It managed 6.3 tons between its opening in 2001 and April 2009.
My view: In my experience of Whitehall, I have come to fear that this is true of some senior civil servants. But it certainly isn’t true of all. Meanwhile, history isn’t destiny. Minds change. So long as we bear witness, and have the courage to speak truth to power.
