Kashagan delays mar outlook for Eni, Total and Shell.

July 20, 2014 Oil 

FT: “Three of Europe’s largest oil companies could take a $1.5bn hit to earnings as a result of delays to Kashagan, the $50bn oil project in the Caspian Sea that has been bedevilled by hold-ups and cost over-runs.”
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“Supply setbacks will push oil price higher.”

July 17, 2014 Oil 

FT: “A possible resumption of oil exports from Libya, as yet unhindered production in Iraq, and hopes of a nuclear deal with Iran, have caught the oil market on the hop.”
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“Sectarian genie is out of the bottle from Syria to Iraq.”

June 30, 2014 Gas, Oil 

Reuters: “As jihadists storm through the Sunni heartlands of Iraq towards Baghdad, where a Shi’ite government they regard as heretic clings on, they have lifted the veil on deep sectarianism which has also stoked the fires of Syria’s civil war and is spilling over into vulnerable mosaic societies such as Lebanon.”
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ISIS insurgents 40km from Baghdad, but no oil price spike yet.

June 20, 2014 Oil 

FT: “It is difficult to overstate the importance of Iraq for the global oil industry. It is the world’s seventh largest producer, with proven reserves of 140bn-150bn barrels of crude oil that analysts say are among the cheapest on the planet to develop.”
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“Iraq blowback: Isis rise manufactured by insatiable oil addiction”.

June 16, 2014 Oil 

Nafeez Ahmed in the Guardian: “Following the bulk of western reporting on the Iraq crisis, you’d think the self-styled ‘Islamic State of Iraq and Syria‘ (Isis) popped out of nowhere, took the west completely by surprise, and is now rampaging across the Middle East like some random weather event.”
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IEA says Opec oil supply could fall short of meeting global demand.

May 25, 2014 Oil 

FT: Opec “will need to increase production significantly in the second half of the year in order to meet world demand, according to the west’s energy watchdog.”
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Top energy analyst charges Shell with asset-stranding risk “naivety”.

May 21, 2014 Climate, Finance, Gas, Oil 

Mark Lewis of Kepler Cheuvreux (client report, no url): In a letter to investors released on 16 May and drawn up “in response to enquiries from shareholders regarding the ‘carbon bubble’ or ’stranded-assets’ issue”,  Shell has followed ExxonMobil’s lead in (i) dismissing the idea that global climate policy might ever be tightened  in such a way as to pose any risk of asset-stranding to its portfolio of proven reserves, and (ii) effectively also arguing that the current pattern of fossil-fuel energy demand will not be threatened for decades to come, such that its more broadly defined resource base – and, by implication, its ongoing investments in new exploration activity — are not at risk of becoming stranded in future either.”
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Shell accuses Carbon Tracker et al of “trivializing” climate debate.

May 16, 2014 Climate, Gas, Oil 

Shell letter to shareholders: “To whom it may concern, We are writing this letter in response to enquiries from shareholders regarding the “carbon bubble” or “stranded assets” issue.” Read more

IEA: Opec oil supply could fall short of meeting global demand this year.

FT: Opec “will need to increase production significantly in the second half of the year in order to meet world demand, according to the west’s energy watchdog.”
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Nigerian oil theft “on industrial scale”: production target “unachievable”.

May 4, 2014 Oil 

FT: “Nigeria is facing its worst oil crisis in five years, with output dropping below the key 2m barrels a day mark for six consecutive months, significantly below historic levels.”
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Exxon: None of our reserves are at risk of stranding by climate policy.

April 30, 2014 Climate, Gas, Oil 

ExxonMobil letter to shareholders: ”….For several years, our Outlook for Energy has explicitly accounted for the prospect of policies regulating greenhouse gas emissions (GHG). This factor, among many others, has informed investments decisions that have led ExxonMobil to become the leading producer of cleaner-burning natural gas in the United States, for example.  Based on this analysis, we are confident that none of our hydrocarbon reserves are now or will become “stranded.”
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“Caspian calamity: Kashagan oilfield risks becoming giant stranded asset.”

April 28, 2014 Gas, Oil 

Mark Lewis of Kepler Cheuvreux (no url): “We published an Alert three weeks ago on the pipeline problems troubling the giant Kashagan oilfield (see our note of 7 April, Caspian Capex Complications: Asset-Stranding Risk Highlighted by Troubles at Kashagan Field), citing a report in Quartz that the super-giant  Kashagan oilfield in the northern Caspian sea “will be out of production for at least two years”. Today the Financial Times has made the same point, saying that “the $50bn Kashagan oil project in Kazakhstan is likely to be delayed by two more years while 200km of pipeline is replaced”. Read more

US oil stocks at record high.

April 23, 2014 Oil 

FT: “US oil was in focus after official data showed domestic crude stocks at a record high, as surging shale production overwhelmed an increase in refinery output.”
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IEA urges Opec to sustain oil production to meet unexpected demand.

February 13, 2014 Oil 

FT: “Opec will need to sustain production at its current level of almost 30m barrels a day if badly depleted oil inventories in the developed world are to be rebuilt, according to the International Energy Agency.”
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One more year of relative oil and gas stability before the storm?

December 30, 2013 Gas, Oil 

Chris Nelder on SmartPlanet: “At the end of 2012, I forecast that Brent Crude (the London benchmark price, which serves as a global proxy for oil prices) would average $105 per barrel (bbl) in 2013, and that West Texas Intermediate (WTI), the North American benchmark, would average $90 to 95/bbl.”
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S Sudan loses 250k mbd and the talk is of global oil supply crisis.

FT: “The crisis in South Sudan, which has left hundreds dead, has started to hit global oil supplies, compounding the effects of production losses in Nigeria and Libya and putting upward pressure on prices. Africa has replaced the Middle East as the focus of concern over global oil supplies due to recent disruptions in the three petroleum-rich countries.” Read more

“The fall off in conventional oil production is real and scary.”

Eric Riguly in the Globe and Mail: “The “peak oil” theory has pretty much vanished, along with The Oil Drum, the bible of peak oil believers. Rest in peace.
Or turn in your grave, for the oil price charts tell a different story.” Read more

Why Canada’s oil sands look like a shaky investment: Carbon Tracker.

December 3, 2013 Oil 

Bloomberg: “A new study (PDF) examining the economics of Western Canada’s oil sands finds that even if the Keystone XL pipeline gets built, it’s unlikely that extracting the heavy, tar-like oil around Alberta will remain commercially viable over the next decade.” Read more

Four oil traders claim in court that BP, Shell and others fix oil spot market.

November 6, 2013 Climate, Finance, Oil 

Bloomberg: “Four longtime traders in the global oil market claim in a lawsuit that the prices for buying and selling crude are fixed – and that they can prove it.” Read more

Oil majors under pressure from investors to curb capex spending.

November 5, 2013 Finance, Oil 

FT: “For years, the global oil majors have been like Formula One cars, racing flat-out to grow. Investors now want them to take their foot off the pedal. Pressure has been building on them to curb their vast capital spending programmes and return more cash to shareholders. Those that do have seen their stock price rise.” Read more