Guardian: “Jeremy Leggett among 100 signatories to letter opposing oil firm’s likely influence over university’s climate change studies.”
Solarcentury
The company I founded in 1998 to design and supply solar energy solutions for the built environment. Solarcentury
Solar Aid
The charity I founded in 2006, with a 5% contribution of Solarcentury profits, to help deliver solar lighting to Africa. Solar Aid
IEA boss writes of legislative “threat” that “could turn US oil boom to bust.”
Maria van der Hoeven in the FT: Thanks to fracking, “US crude oil production has increased by 1.3m barrels per day in the past two years, and the US Energy Information Administration forecasts that the US will produce a further 1.4m b/d by the end of 2014.” Fracked oil trades at a discount to international benchmarks, but there is a problem. Read more
Opec nets a trillion dollars on an average annual oil price of $111.
December 30, 2012 Oil
FT: “With one trading day left before the year-end, Brent oil prices are on the point of seeing an average for the year of about $111.5 a barrel, higher than the previous all-time high set in 2011 of $110.9.”
Saudis drop oil production as US shale oil production rises.
December 11, 2012 Oil
FT: New US government estimates show US oil production rose by 760,000 barrels a day this year – the largest increase in annual output since crude oil started to be pumped commercially in the US in 1859. Saudi production dropped to 9.5 mbd in November. Read more
Jeff Rubin: Why shale oil won’t save you at the pumps.
November 22, 2012 Oil
In the Globe and Mail: “The IEA’s rosy forecast isn’t all that it appears – and it certainly isn’t going to lead to a significant break at the pump for you. ….The problem isn’t the availability of the fuel but the price needed to get it out of the ground. Unfortunately, that’s already more than we can afford. Read more
Manipulation of oil markets is systemic, says former regulator.
Chris Cook, former head of compliance at the International Petroleum Exchange: “The Guardian’s investigation into the alleged “Libor-like” fixing of UK gas prices was doubly ironic for me. The first irony is that, as director of compliance and market supervision of the International Petroleum Exchange (now ICE Futures Europe) in the 1990s, I was heavily involved in the development and legal architecture of the gas-market contract that has now allegedly been manipulated….. The real problem lies not with gas, but crude oil – which is suffering perhaps the greatest market manipulation the world has seen.”
Oil traders in two very different camps on where price is headed.
October 31, 2012 Oil
Reuters: “Peak oilers have become almost extinct, destroyed by the arrival of new technologies with the U.S. leading the oil supply change,” said David Hufton of oil brokerage PVM.” Who agrees? “A request by Reuters for forecasts of 2020 prices drew 20 responses from consultants, banks and energy analysts. The poll produced a mean average of $118 a barrel for North Sea Brent, suggesting little change from the current level around $110. / But only five of the 20 are actually predicting prices anywhere near the mean average. / The real story is in the division between the two camps. Setting aside the demand side of the debate, the argument about supply is simple. One camp argues that the upside from shale oil supplies will be more than enough to meet demand growth. The other disputes that, saying the likely impact from shale is being exaggerated. ….The top bull is Barclays Capital, $24 clear of its nearest rival with a $184 forecast for Brent. Barcap heads a group of six that put Brent at $140 a barrel or higher.”
If oil production shrinks fast, GDP impact models don’t work: IMF.
October 28, 2012 Oil
Washington Post: Two IMF economists try to tackle peak oil in a new working paper, “Oil and the World Economy: Some Possible Futures.” Read more
UK is sleepwalking into an oil crunch: Telegraph International Business Editor.
September 5, 2012 Commentaries, Oil
Ambrose Evans-Pritchard: The Citi report “is yet another piece of evidence pointing to Peak Cheap Oil. Jeremy Leggett, the head of the UK Taskforce on Peak Oil and Energy Security, says Britain is sleepwalking into a potential disaster by failing to prepare fully for a global supply crunch. The refusal to listen to warning signals is comparable to the complacency in the build-up to the financial crisis, he argues, but with graver implications for the British economy. I agree.”
Citi report on shrinking Saudi exports “has huge implications for global economy.”
September 5, 2012 Commentaries, Oil
Telegraph: “If nothing changes, Saudi may have no available oil for export by 2030”, Citi analyst Heidy Rehman wrote. ….Jeremy Leggett, convenor of the UK Industry Taskforce on Peak Oil and Energy Security, said the report had “huge” implications and that a decline in global oil production could cause “massive stress to the global economy”.
Saudi Arabia risks becoming oil importer within 20 years: Citi.
Bloomberg: “Oil and its derivatives are used for about half of the kingdom’s electricity production, which at peak rates is growing at about 8 percent a year, the bank said today in a an e-mailed report.” Read more
“Oil: the next revolution.” 110 mbd by 2020, says ex oil academic.
Harvard University: “Oil production capacity is surging in the United States and several other countries at such a fast pace that global oil output capacity is likely to grow by nearly 20 percent by 2020, which could prompt a plunge or even a collapse in oil prices, according to a new study by a researcher at the Harvard Kennedy School.” Read more
BP-funded researcher forecasts 110 mbd by 2020 and steep dip in oil prices.
Belfer Center, Harvard University: “Contrary to what most people believe, oil supply capacity is growing worldwide at such an unprecedented level that it might outpace consumption. This could lead to a glut of overproduction and a steep dip in oil prices.” Read more
Oil consumers ready to release stocks come Iran sanctions in July.
April 3, 2012 Oil
FT: “Talks between some of the world’s richest oil consuming nations over whether to release billions of barrels in emergency oil reserves are moving to a question of “when” rather than “if” to act. The view in the oil markets is that the US, UK, France and Japan are likely to agree soon on a release of their strategic petroleum stocks, to prevent crude prices soaring further when European Union sanctions on Iran are introduced in July. Benchmark Brent crude was trading at about $125 a barrel on Tuesday, a few dollars below the post-financial crisis highs it hit last month.” On all three occasions of release for stockpiles, the oil price has been contained.
“Saudi Arabia resorts to Jedi mindtricks” on oil supply: FT Alphaville.
March 29, 2012 Oil
Olivier Jakob at Petromatrix: “It used to be that Saudi Arabia produced more oil when it wanted lower oil prices. Today, when Saudi Arabia wants lower prices it produces an op-ed in the Financial Times.” FT Alphaville: “It all does seem very counterintuitive. On the one hand Saudi is saying there is no supply shortage and stocks are at record levels. On the other hand it’s sending more crude to the United States. On the one hand you have high oil prices and the constant mumblings of SPR releases. On the other hand much of the analyst and academic community insists there’s no need for any emergency action. / So what is going on? / We’d be pleased to hear from anyone who can make sense of it.”
Saudi Arabia, pumping at 10 mbd, is “giving only verbal assurances”.
March 23, 2012 Oil
FT: “Saudi Arabia says it has the capacity to raise production by 2.5m b/d if markets need it. The problem, says Ed Morse, head of commodities research at Citigroup, is that “the market is seeking transparency, and all the Saudis are giving is verbal assurances”. The kingdom is already pumping at a three-decade peak of 10m b/d, and increased exports last month by 150-300,000 b/d, according to the IEA.”
“Soaring oil prices risk recession”: FT.
March 23, 2012 Oil
The IEA warns cost of oil imports will surge to $1.5tn this year if crude prices stay at their current levels. Fatih Birol says that for the EU high oil prices are now overtaking the sovereign debt crisis as the biggest problem. The EU is set to spend a record $502bn this year on net imports of oil, up from $472bn in 2011: 2.8% of GDP. between 2000 and 2010 it was spending on average 1.7 per cent of GDP on oil imports. Birol: “The current price levels are on average higher than the awful year of 2008 [when oil hit a record high of $147 a barrel], and as such have the capacity to tip the global economy back into recession.” FT: “Saudi Arabia has pledged to increase production and exports to make up for the shortfall from Iran. But that will eat into its spare capacity – the cushion of additional production that it keeps in reserve for supply crises. Some analysts already worry that Saudi Arabia’s spare capacity has fallen to dangerously low levels, reducing the amount of redundancy in the system.”
US & UK float prospect of emergency release of oil stocks from reserve.
March 15, 2012 Oil
Reuters: “Britain is poised to cooperate with the United States on a release of strategic oil stocks that is expected within months, two British sources said, in a bid to prevent fuel prices choking economic growth in a U.S. election year.” Price falls $4 on the news. The White House then denies this is an option. Gasoline prices are at near record levels in the US.
Oil price hits $128 and Iran views Saudi production hike as economic warfare.
March 2, 2012 Oil
Rumours of a pipeline blast in Saudi, denied, took the oil price to its highest since mad 2008. Iran has warned Saudi Arabia not to lift production to offset the embargo on Iranian oil. But Saudi production is up to 9.7 mbd.
Oil hits $125 on IAEA fears of Iran’s uranium buildup.
The IAEA says Iran has been significantly accelerating production of higher grade uranium over the last six months.
“Soaring oil prices will dwarf the Greek drama”.
February 25, 2012 Oil, Top Ten Signposts to Energy Crisis
So writes Liam Halligan in the Telegraph. “Crude is now expensive not due to political argy-bargy but because of the fundamental truths of demand and supply.” Oil now highest ever in sterling and euro terms.
Oil reaches a sterling highest-ever price on Iran fears.
February 22, 2012 Oil
Jitters over a possible attack on Iran are outweighing concerns that slowing export orders in China and the eurozone crisis could jeopardise global growth. The cost of Brent crude hit $121.92 a barrel, or £77.77. The previous sterling record was set last year at the height of the Libyan war. US crude hit a nine-month high of $106 (£67.62) a barrel this week. The highest price recorded in dollars was $147 in July 2008, when the pound was stronger. A high oil price pushed UK inflation last year to above 5%.
Solar now cheaper than diesel in India making Mittal, Coca-cola and others believers.
January 25, 2012 Clean Energy
Bloomberg: “India is producing power from solar cells more cheaply than by burning diesel for the first time, spurring billionaire Sunil Mittal and Coca-Cola Co. (KO)’s mango supplier to jettison the fuel in favor of photovoltaic panels. The cost of solar energy in India declined by 28 percent since December 2010, according to Bloomberg New Energy Finance. ….India, the third-biggest energy user behind China and the U.S., has a goal to have installed 20,000 megawatts of solar- energy capacity by 2022, about equal to 18 new nuclear reactors. That target is 10 percent of today’s total generating capacity including all energy sources. Less than 1 percent of that current power base is solar.”
Saudi Arabia targets a $100 oil price.
January 16, 2012 Oil
Up a third from $75, the price it put forward as fair in 2008. The IMF has estimate $80m is needed to balance the domestic budget.