Low oil prices: recession in Russia, revolt in Venezuela?

October 16, 2014 Finance, Oil 

Guardian: “The sudden slump in oil prices, which have fallen 15% in the past three months, has sent tremors through the capitals of the world’s great oil powers, many of whom could face testing budget crunches if the tendency persists.”
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“Has Saudi Arabia lost control of the oil market?”

October 16, 2014 Oil 

Nick Butler on the FT: “Conspiracy theories abound around the oil price fall. A 25 per cent drop in less than three months is certainly exceptional and the assumption is that in a politically driven market a political decision by someone, somewhere must have forced prices down.”
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Slowdown and Ebola fears push down stock markets and price of oil.

October 16, 2014 Finance, Oil 

Guardian: “Fears of a worldwide economic slowdown and anxiety about the spread of Ebola reverberated around stock markets Wednesday, driving shares around the world sharply down and pushing the price of oil to a four-year low.”
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Opec tests US shale oil production with low prices.

October 15, 2014 Oil 

Bloomberg: “OPEC is resisting pressure to cut oil production while demand slumps as it tests how low prices must go to make U.S. shale oil unprofitable. As producers become more efficient, that floor is sinking.”
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IEA cuts oil demand forecast.

October 14, 2014 Oil 

FT: “The price of oil tumbled nearly three dollars a barrel on Tuesday after the west’s energy watchdog cut its forecast for oil demand growth in a sign of the darkening outlook for the global economy.”
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Reuters: “Privately, Saudis tell oil market- get used to lower prices.”

October 13, 2014 Oil 

Reuters (exclusive): “Suadi Arabia is quietly telling the oil market it would be comfortable with much lower oil prices for an extended period, a sharp shift in policy that may be aimed at slowing the expansion of rival producers including those in the U.S. shale patch.”
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“Here’s why shale oil stocks are tanking.”

October 10, 2014 Finance, Gas, Oil 

Bob Pisani on CNBC: Why are shale plays getting hit so hard? The short answer is, because oil is dropping. West Texas Intermediate has gone from $105 to $85 in three months. But a large part of the problem has to do with the way shale drilling is financed.”
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Oil sinks to $88, share prices plunge.

October 10, 2014 Finance, Oil 

FT: “Fears about weakening global growth drove oil prices to a four-year low on Friday, at the end of a turbulent week for financial markets that also saw world share prices drop to their lowest in seven months.”
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Drilling rig numbers hit in a new record in the US as oil search spreads.

October 8, 2014 Nuclear, Oil 

Bloomberg: “Rigs targeting oil in the U.S. surged to a record as drillers ventured outside the nation’s biggest basins to search for crude in developing plays such as the South-Central Oklahoma Oil Province, known as SCOOP.”
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“Shale boom tested as sub-$90 oil threatens U.S. drillers.”

October 8, 2014 Finance, Gas, Oil 

Bloomberg: “The U.S. shale boom is producing record amounts of new oil as demand weakens, pushing prices down toward levels that threaten to reduce future drilling.”
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Brent oil retreats to 28-month low.

October 2, 2014 Oil 

FT: “Brent crude hit a 28-month low on Thursday while benchmark US oil dropped below the $90 a barrel mark for the first time since April 2013, pointing to significant stocks on both sides of the Atlantic.”
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“At least three oil and gas majors have ordered full strategic reviews.”

September 8, 2014 Finance, Gas, Oil 

Nick Butler in the FT:  ”Energy executives returning from their summer holidays face some hard choices. I know of at least three major oil and gas companies that have ordered full scale strategic reviews.”
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Kashagan delays mar outlook for Eni, Total and Shell.

July 20, 2014 Oil 

FT: “Three of Europe’s largest oil companies could take a $1.5bn hit to earnings as a result of delays to Kashagan, the $50bn oil project in the Caspian Sea that has been bedevilled by hold-ups and cost over-runs.”
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“Supply setbacks will push oil price higher.”

July 17, 2014 Oil 

FT: “A possible resumption of oil exports from Libya, as yet unhindered production in Iraq, and hopes of a nuclear deal with Iran, have caught the oil market on the hop.”
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“Sectarian genie is out of the bottle from Syria to Iraq.”

June 30, 2014 Gas, Oil 

Reuters: “As jihadists storm through the Sunni heartlands of Iraq towards Baghdad, where a Shi’ite government they regard as heretic clings on, they have lifted the veil on deep sectarianism which has also stoked the fires of Syria’s civil war and is spilling over into vulnerable mosaic societies such as Lebanon.”
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ISIS insurgents 40km from Baghdad, but no oil price spike yet.

June 20, 2014 Oil 

FT: “It is difficult to overstate the importance of Iraq for the global oil industry. It is the world’s seventh largest producer, with proven reserves of 140bn-150bn barrels of crude oil that analysts say are among the cheapest on the planet to develop.”
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“Iraq blowback: Isis rise manufactured by insatiable oil addiction”.

June 16, 2014 Oil 

Nafeez Ahmed in the Guardian: “Following the bulk of western reporting on the Iraq crisis, you’d think the self-styled ‘Islamic State of Iraq and Syria‘ (Isis) popped out of nowhere, took the west completely by surprise, and is now rampaging across the Middle East like some random weather event.”
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IEA says Opec oil supply could fall short of meeting global demand.

May 25, 2014 Oil 

FT: Opec “will need to increase production significantly in the second half of the year in order to meet world demand, according to the west’s energy watchdog.”
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Top energy analyst charges Shell with asset-stranding risk “naivety”.

May 21, 2014 Climate, Finance, Gas, Oil 

Mark Lewis of Kepler Cheuvreux (client report, no url): In a letter to investors released on 16 May and drawn up “in response to enquiries from shareholders regarding the ‘carbon bubble’ or ’stranded-assets’ issue”,  Shell has followed ExxonMobil’s lead in (i) dismissing the idea that global climate policy might ever be tightened  in such a way as to pose any risk of asset-stranding to its portfolio of proven reserves, and (ii) effectively also arguing that the current pattern of fossil-fuel energy demand will not be threatened for decades to come, such that its more broadly defined resource base – and, by implication, its ongoing investments in new exploration activity — are not at risk of becoming stranded in future either.”
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Shell accuses Carbon Tracker et al of “trivializing” climate debate.

May 16, 2014 Climate, Gas, Oil 

Shell letter to shareholders: “To whom it may concern, We are writing this letter in response to enquiries from shareholders regarding the “carbon bubble” or “stranded assets” issue.” Read more